When the right brings up “woke” its generally a sign that they’ve got nothing better to talk about and are trying to blame the left for a mess of their own making. Take for example the “debate” about reintroducing conscription to the UK.
Since taking power the Tories have been systematically running the UK defence forces into the ground (its almost like they are funded by Russian Oligarchs…oh wait!). As I’ve mentioned in a prior post, troop numbers are down by about half from 14 years ago, the number of warships in services has dropped (with reports others are to be mothballed) and some of those that are still in service can’t actually engage land targets or other warships! Nor indeed do the nuclear missiles seem to work (they’ve not completed a successful test of a nuclear missile in 8 years), despite the tens of billions spent on upgrading them. And the carriers keep breaking down. Its all very reminiscent of how corruption in Russia hollowed out their military. Hell one of my first blog posts was on the decision to cancel the Nimrod maritime patrol aircraft with no thought as to what was going to replace them.
So rather than admit that they, the supposed patriots (who’ve spent the last few years humping the union jack), have left the country basically undefended. Instead, they are trying to push this conscription argument as a way to make it the fault of young people, who’ve apparently all gone woke and aren’t fit enough to be soldiers anymore.
And how exactly is conscription going to address any of the issues I mentioned before? As a rule if you have an issue with getting someone to do a job, you raise the salary to create more of an incentive. As its going to be a lot cheaper to have one well paid and competent person doing a job than lots of low paid people who don’t want to be there. And clearly the defence contractors are having a laugh, why not clamp down on them and insist the equipment they supply actually works and refuse payment until it does?
Modern warfare is very different from what it was like in world war 2 (a point I bring up because most of these Tory boomers seem to think they served in WW2…even thought they were born afterwards…and were never conscripted themselves…so why they don’t sign up for service, or get their kids to do so?). For example it is my observation that young people these days seem to take their physical health a lot more seriously than my or previous generations (they are all into cross-fit and protein shakes). Unfortunately, that’s still not fit enough for the modern army, largely because of all the extra kit they have to carry. A modern soldier is expected to be able to carry between 45 to 70 kg’s (or 100-150 lbs). This includes things like body armour (which can weight up to 15 kg’s, by comparison a medieval knight’s armour weighted 30 kg’s for full plate to 8 kg’s for chain mail) their primary weapon & ammo (another 10-15 kg’s), plus a few MRE’s, a couple of litres of water, comm’s, grenades, night vision, bivi bag, survival kit, etc.
In addition squads will typically carry some sort of machine gun, plus its ammo (spread out across the squad), as well as either some sort of recoilless rifle, anti tank weapon and/or MANPADS (with again reloads carried by the rest of the squad). Drones are now frequently used to see around the next corner, or even attack the enemy. So someone has carry that gear, plus counter drone equipment (to protect you from enemy drones). Mines and IED’s are a major threat, so gear to counter those is needed. I think you get the idea.
While infantry typically specialise in one role or another, they still need some level of proficiency in all of this equipment (in case the user of, say the anti-tank rocket, gets killed or wounded and an enemy tank shows up). And that sort of training takes sometime. And that’s just the infantry, armoured units, the navy or air force are going to have even more stringent requirements as far as training goes. For example, in most military’s you have to be an officer before you can become a pilot, because nobody is going to trust a 18 year old grunt with several million worth of government property. In fact its not unusual for those leaving the military to have sufficient technical skills these days that they can get onto a relevant degree course, typically entering at advanced levels, and after a few years of study leave with a bachelors degree or even a masters.
And then there’s the command side of things. In WW2 a lot of promotion was by dead man’s boots, in which you got promoted because your boss found the bullet with his name on it. So you get the job, until they find someone better, or you get killed or your new boss buys the farm and you get promoted again (and the latter two were more common). Obviously, armies prefer to educate their officers in special training colleges, with promotion based on merit, not on how lucky you are at dodging bullets.
These facts are made clear by events in Ukraine. The reason why the Russians performed so terribly in the early days is because they were relying on the same conscript soldiers the Tories now want, and those conscripts proved to be woefully inadequate, not least because of the poor quality of the equipment they’d been issued (due to corruption). The reason why the west is having to throw stupid amounts of money at Ukraine is the expense of training and equipping all of these new soldiers at short notice (so who exactly is going to fund that for the UK?). Not to mention the fact that they are taking hundreds of thousands of taxpayers out of the economy and having to now pay them a salary. In other words, you are shrinking the private sector and expanding the public sector, which is practically against the Tories religion.
Another lesson I’d argue from Ukraine is the importance of logistics. Armchair generals think of weapons and tactics, real generals think of logistics. The vast amount of shells and ammunition expended would be a major problem in the event of a prolonged war. What stockpiles NATO has are being depleted. In the UK we have only a handful of fairly inept, greedy and frankly corrupt companies to rely on (notably BAE). While back before WW2 there were vastly more companies (so if one didn’t toe the line, the government could take its business elsewhere) as well as networks of state funded or state owned factories to produce munitions.
So an obvious first step in putting the UK on a war footing would be to either nationalise companies like BAE systems, or break them up, or a bit of both. This would make it easier to expand the production of munitions without any corporate red tape getting in the way. Needless to say, I don’t see the Tories doing that!
Then there’s the question of who is going to work in these factories? We can’t recruit millions of house wives this time. So you’d have to broaden it. For example offering well paid industrial jobs might tempt people out of the gig economy. That said, you are going to need people with skills (modern factories are a little different from those in the 1940’s). Training this new work force could take some time. So if you were to start conscription I’d argue for industrial conscription. And I’d start with those who are skilled, but idle and not working, such as recently retired professionals or the idle rich (you know, they sort of people who vote Tory), and possibly the unemployed, if they have relevant skills. Keep in mind, none of them will need to leave the country, so its not like they need to be ultra fit. If they can lift a pencil or use a keyboard that will do.
This would be important once we factor in the tooth to tail ratio. That is to say, for every soldier you have on the front line you’ll need several more keeping them supplied with munitions, doing intelligence analysis, administration tasks, medical support, driving lorries, cooks, posties, etc. By filling as many of these roles on the home front, you can deploy more of the professional army and the reserves to the actual front line. But again, I don’t see the Tories doing any of this.
And how do we pay for all of the above? Well how about a one off wealth tax. Say 1% of everyone’s net worth and 10% if you own more than £2 million (maybe 20% for anyone with more than £50 million). This can be paid as a lump sum, or deferred to a later date in exchange for a nominal fee (say 3% of the principal per year). In case you didn’t catch it, we’ve now created what is essentially a war bond. The government can either hold onto them and use these bonds as collateral to borrow money. Or sell them on the open market to investors for ready cash. Either way, I don’t see the Tories doing this.
So in short, like everything these days this talk of conscription is just a gimmick. Gesture politics and culture wars. The Tories have no interest in the country’s defence. After all, many of them have financial interests outside of the country. If a shooting war starts, they’ll just make a run for their offshore tax haven (until that gets invaded of course!). Its just another front in their policy of fighting culture wars so their wealthy supporters can be left in peace and keep looting the country.